Who Are the Politically Radicalized in the Muslim World?

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Ms. Mogahed, the executive director of the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies, relied heavily on survey research across the Muslim world to bring public opinion into sharper focus. Her findings from the Gallup World Poll in 35 predominantly Muslim countries reveal that while many individuals view the United States negatively, it doesn't mean they support extremism. In fact, the vast majority of those polled are classified as moderates. According to her research, only 7% of those polled, based on a population-weighted average, are considered to be members of the high-conflict group, defined as those who said the 9/11 attacks were completely morally justified and who also have an unfavorable or very unfavorable view of the United States. These politically radicalized individuals express sympathy for extremism and could potentially provide support for terrorist groups or even join their ranks. The moderates, however, hold a variety of opinions toward the West, ranging from positive to negative -- but they don't condone the 9/11 attacks.

Drawing from Gallup's breadth of public opinion data, Ms. Mogahed sketched the profiles of the two groups, at times shattering stereotypes of what terrorist sympathizers look like. First, both groups share several values. Radicals and moderates say religion is an important part of their lives. Secondly, they also use the same attributes to describe what they admire most about the West -- namely, technology, rule of law, individual responsibility, and fairness of political systems. But perhaps most importantly, both the moderate and high-conflict groups have a deep sense of being treated as inferiors and being humiliated by the West. In fact, what they resent most is the West's "disrespect for Islam." The stereotype of the poor, uneducated young male -- whose piety is the cause of his sympathies for extremism -- is not found in Gallup's research. On average, the politically radicalized are more educated and affluent than the moderates. And while about half of the high-conflict group are between the ages of 18 and 29, 42% of moderates are in the same age range. Almost 4 in 10 among the politically radicalized are women. Members of the high-conflict group are also more likely to say that democracy will help foster progress in their region. However, the high-conflict group's greatest fear is to be "dominated" or "occupied" by the West, while for moderates, their top concerns are based on economic issues such as standards of living and unemployment.

Overall, the politically radicalized reject the idea that human suffering is inevitable and deserved. As such, the high-conflict group shows a great sense of ego and self-actualization. According to Ms. Mogahed, coauthor of Who Speaks for Islam? What a Billion Muslims Really Think (Gallup Press, March 2008), al Qaeda symbolizes rebellion -- not religion -- in the eyes of its admirers. For the politically radicalized, the struggle appears to be a quest for policy reform, not piety. Dr. Zogby added that people in the Arab world don't want us to get involved in their internal politics, which only reinforces their perceptions of Western control and domination.

One attendee identified a key issue in asking how the United States can help the region build capacity without meddling in the countries' internal affairs. Both Dr. Zogby and Ms. Mogahed explained that capacity building and non-interference in internal politics are compatible if the rules of engagement in the Muslim world are nuanced. If we are to bring about change in society without resorting to violence, "we must engage with mainstream, legitimate reformers and stop diagnosing the problem as religion," said Ms. Mogahed.